Sunday 2 December 2018

Straits Times Index (3 December 2018)

In the previous article "Straits Times Index (10 September 2018)", I was very bullish in the short term and bearish in the longer term, where the Straits Times Index (STI) "shall resume its decline towards the psychological 3,000 level and probably, reaching my 2nd target of 2,800-2,840 level".

What happened?

Well unfortunately, it did not hit my 2nd target as a matter of fact. The lowest it went was 2,955.68 on 26 October 2018, before the bulls changed the direction, pushed the STI towards 3,000 and hovered around the 3,000-3,100 area.

Picture 1: STI daily chart depicting the low of 2,955.68 on 26 October 2018 via InvestingNote.

Looking at the bigger picture

Hopping on to the monthly chart of STI, it was testing the lower side of the long-term uptrend, depicted with a thick black line in picture 2. Those three circles are where price began to rebound and the line almost perfectly joint the three of them together.

Picture 2: Monthly chart of STI, via InvestingNote.

What can happen next?

STI ended with a green candle for the month ending November 2018, which is good enough to prove that the downside strength is very likely to have completed and the STI is looking to resume its bullishness towards the previous high, at about 3,600 level or even higher towards the upper trendline, in my opinion.

Conclusion

I am bullish on STI in the long term as I once said that 4,000 is a likely target for the bulls and that the current bears are just testing the lows of it (somewhere in my STI analysis articles). This upcoming long-term rally, if it happens, shall be the final leg for the bulls before the next financial crisis in my opinion.

The rally would have to reach higher than the previous high of 3,641.65 achieved on 2 May 2018 and/or even breach the long-term upper trendline for the bulls to stay consistently strong, failing which, the bears will take the control and you know what is likely to happen by then.